Стремительный рост акций памяти: новая эра или пузырь?

Over the past year, memory stocks have experienced an unprecedented run, underpinned by soaring prices, expanding gross margins, and substantial free cash flows. This has propelled the shares of Micron Technology (MU), Sandisk (SNDK), and SK Hynix (SKHY) to extraordinary heights. Notably, Micron has surged over 700%, Sandisk an astounding 3,400%, and SK Hynix's Korean shares have climbed 600%. The current upswing can be traced directly to the frenetic build-out of AI infrastructure, which has caused acute supply and demand imbalances in the memory market. This market consists of DRAM, meant for short-term storage, and NAND flash memory, which maintains data for longer durations. Both categories have benefited immensely from AI-driven demand. The principal market catalyst is currently high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Integrated with GPUs and AI chips to cut latency and energy use, HBM represents one of AI’s most critical bottlenecks. Leading DRAM producers—SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron—are heavily investing to meet demand, resulting in a widespread DRAM supply shortage and escalating prices. In parallel, flash memory aids massive enterprise SSDs that hold training data. However, flash is under supply constraint since major producers have reallocated their focus to HBM after scaling back flash production following the NAND market’s downturn post-pandemic. During the pandemic, electronics demand surged, driving flash consumption, but collapsed once pandemic restrictions eased. Historical trends might suggest a looming market crash, as booms typically lead to oversupply and subsequent price drops. Nevertheless, this cycle exhibits distinctive traits. First, the growth trajectory of AI infrastructure demand shows no signs of waning. Second, memory producers, especially those on HBM, are striving to keep up amidst significant supply growth barriers. These include the limited availability of EUV machines necessary for fabricating HBM and advanced logic chips, the high wafer requirement for HBM production, and the delayed establishment of new clean rooms. Moreover, memory producers, Sandisk included, have achieved unprecedented long-term contract security. Both DRAM and NAND memory cycles indicate enduring momentum, with current stock valuations yet to factor in these trends fully. Consequently, memory stocks remain compelling AI-related investment prospects, projecting a sustained upturn.