Экономический подъем Армении не оправдал ожиданий

Armenia's economic performance has exceeded expectations for the first 11 months of 2025, with an impressive 8.3% growth rate according to the World Bank's latest 'Armenia Monthly Economic Update – January 2026.' This marks a significant upward trend far beyond initial forecasts. Over November, growth continued robustly at 10.4%, primarily fueled by the industrial sector's phenomenal rise of 31.7%. This acceleration is attributed largely to expansions in the mining and manufacturing sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metal production, which saw increases of 36.5% and 36.2%, respectively. Concurrently, the construction sector maintained a double-digit growth rate of 17.2%, while the services sector expanded by 11.2%, excluding trade. However, wholesale and retail trade displayed a more modest growth at 1.5%. Despite these auspicious figures, the number of registered businesses in Armenia experienced a decline, falling by 16.9% from the previous month, owing to a 20.5% reduction in individual entrepreneurs. This follows a record high registration of businesses exceeding 3500 in the September-October period. Armenia's projected economic growth for 2025 within its state budget is set at 5.1%. Looking further ahead, the expected rate for 2026 is 5.4%. The Central Bank's monetary policy report for the fourth quarter of the current year suggests a GDP growth range between 5.9% and 5.9% for the end of 2025, with projections of 6.3% to 4.1% in 2026, and 4.9% to 5.3% in 2027. International financial organizations have also provided their forecasts: the Eurasian Development Bank anticipates a 6% growth in 2025, followed by 5.3% in 2026; the World Bank estimates a 5.2% growth rate in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026; the International Monetary Fund projects 5% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026; the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicts 5% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026; and the Asian Development Bank suggests an optimistic 6%. These diverse projections highlight confidence in Armenia's economic trajectory despite some areas of concern, such as the decrease in new business registrations. The combination of robust sectoral growth and varied forecasts underscores the dynamic economic environment in Armenia.